Spatial Analysis of Socio-Economic Impacts of the Transition from Fossil Fuel-Based Systems to Renewable Energy Economies
Keywords:
just transition; spatial analysis; energy justice; fossil fuel decline; renewable energy economy; socio-economic vulnerabilityAbstract
The global shift from fossil-fuel-based to renewable energy economies is reshaping the socio-economic geography of energy-producing regions. While the environmental rationale for decarbonization is well established, the distribution of its costs and benefits across space remains uneven, raising concerns about the fairness of the transition process. This paper examines the spatial dimensions of socio-economic impacts associated with the shift away from fossil fuels, drawing on the concept of "just transition" to interrogate how employment loss, income change, and public investment are distributed across fossil-fuel-dependent regions. Using a mixed-methods spatial analysis of six representative coal- and fossil-fuel-dependent regions in Europe, Asia, North America, Australia, and South Asia, the study constructs a composite Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (SEVI) and examines its relationship with renewable energy investment, employment restructuring, and policy support mechanisms. The results indicate substantial spatial heterogeneity: regions with early and well-financed transition planning, such as the Ruhr Valley, exhibit lower vulnerability despite large employment losses, whereas regions with limited institutional capacity and diversification, such as Latrobe Valley and Silesia, display higher vulnerability scores and unemployment premiums. Spatial clustering of vulnerability was evident using Moran's I statistics, suggesting that proximity to declining fossil-fuel infrastructure compounds socio-economic risk. The paper concludes that place-based, spatially differentiated policy instruments—rather than uniform national programmes—are necessary to achieve equitable outcomes in the global energy transition.
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