Electoral Behaviour Under Simultaneous Elections in India: A Comparative Analysis of National and Regional Voting Preferences Within the One Nation, One Election Framework
Keywords:
One Nation One Election; simultaneous elections; coattail effect; ticket-splitting; Indian federalism; electoral behaviour; regional parties; Lok Sabha; Vidhan SabhaAbstract
The proposition of 'One Nation, One Election' (ONOE) in India has generated considerable scholarly and policy debate since the Ram Nath Kovind High-Level Committee formally recommended its implementation in March 2024. This paper investigates how simultaneous conduct of Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assembly elections may reshape electoral behaviour, specifically examining the phenomenon of ticket-splitting, coattail effects, and identity-based partisan alignment. Drawing on primary survey data collected from 3,240 respondents across six states Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, West Bengal, and Telangana and triangulated with secondary data from Election Commission of India records (1967–2024), Lokniti-CSDS surveys, and Vidhan Sabha results, the study finds that simultaneous elections systematically suppress regional party vote shares by approximately 7–12 percentage points, while national party premia increase correspondingly. Voters demonstrate measurable coattail dependency when both elections are held concurrently, with 64.3% of respondents indicating they would choose identical or allied parties across both ballots. However, this tendency is significantly moderated by state-specific identity variables caste, linguistic identity, and regional economic grievances particularly in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Telangana. The paper argues that ONOE, if implemented, carries profound implications for India's federal character and for the representative quality of state legislatures. It concludes with recommendations for institutional safeguards that might preserve genuine bifurcation of voter choice.
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