Impact of Climate Extremes on Rice Production in Madhesh Province Nepal and The Subsequent Adaptive Strategies Employed by Farmers

Abstract

The exponential intensification of hydro-climatic variability has positioned Madhesh Province, the primary agricultural corridor of Nepal, at a critical juncture regarding food security. This research investigates the shifting precipitation and temperature trajectories over a thirty-year period (1993–2023) and evaluates their subsequent impacts on rice (Oryza sativa) productivity. Longitudinal meteorological data analysis reveals a significant decadal shift characterized by a 32.7% increase in consecutive dry days and a statistically significant rise in mean maximum temperatures during the reproductive phenological stages. These climate extremes have resulted in profound quantitative declines in rice yields; empirical evidence from the 2022/2023 cropping cycles demonstrates average yield losses of 40.4%, with grain sterility increasing by 163.5% due to thermal-water stress.

The study further delineates the dichotomy between adaptive strategies employed by smallholder farmers. Results indicate a high reliance on autonomous adaptations, such as shifting planting dates (78.5% adoption), which offer limited yield recovery. In contrast, planned interventions, including subsidized irrigation and drought-tolerant seed varieties, show higher efficacy in yield stabilization (up to 45.0% recovery) but suffer from low adoption rates due to structural barriers like high energy costs and labor scarcity. The findings underscore an "adaptation gap" predicated on socio-economic stratification, where marginal farmers remain most vulnerable. This research provides a mathematically rigorous framework for municipal and provincial planners to transition toward climate-smart infrastructure, emphasizing that future-proofing the "breadbasket of Nepal" requires decoupling production from erratic monsoon patterns through systemic engineering and financial risk-mitigation tools.